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Smith\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u65e0\u6240\u754f\u60e7\u3002\u201d\u201c\u4ece\u98ce\u9669\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u5c24\u5176\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u867d\u52bf\u5934\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4f46\u4ef7\u683c\u6602\u8d35\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5229\u6da6\u589e\u957f\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u80a1\u4ef7\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6700\u53ef\u9760\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u6500\u5347\u901f\u5ea6\u660e\u663e\u5feb\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u6da824%\uff0c\u4f46\u5229\u6da6\u5374\u76f8\u5bf9\u6301\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6da8\u5e45\u90fd\u6e90\u4e8e\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u907f\u514d\u8870\u9000\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u5e76\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u540e\u8f6c\u5411\u964d\u606f\u3002\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u65f6\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u516c\u53f8\u672a\u6765\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4eec\u5bf9\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u8868\u73b0\u8f83\u4e3a\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u5c06\u589e\u957f\u7ea611%\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u4e3a\u80a1\u4ef7\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u4e0a\u6da8\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5f80\u5f80\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u7c7b\u516c\u53f8\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u671b\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e30\u539a\u5229\u6da6\u3002\u751f\u6210\u5f0fAI\u70ed\u6f6e\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u5bf9\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe(Nvidia)\u7b49\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5927\u4e3e\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u4f30\u503c\u9ad8\u4f01\u3002\u8fd9\u5bb6\u82af\u7247\u5236\u9020\u5546\u57fa\u4e8e\u672a\u676512\u4e2a\u6708\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u4e3a33.48\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u987e\u95eeMichael Landsberg\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u76ee\u524d\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u786e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u8861\u91cf\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u80a1\u4ef7\u53bb\u5e74\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86\u4e24\u500d\u591a\uff0c\u5728\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u4e2d\u9886\u5148\uff0c2024\u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u6da846%\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u518d\u6b21\u5728\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u4e2d\u5c45\u524d\u3002\u8be5\u80a1\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u53bb\u5e74\u66fe\u5347\u81f360\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u7740\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u516c\u5e03\u5de8\u989d\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u500d\u6570\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5e02\u5e10\u7387<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e02\u8d26\u7387\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0e\u8d26\u9762\u4ef7\u503c\u4e4b\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e0e\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7\u51cf\u53bb\u8d1f\u503a\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"826\" src=\"https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924124-1024x826.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10531\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924124-1024x826.png 1024w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924124-300x242.png 300w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924124-768x619.png 768w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924124-1170x944.png 1170w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924124-585x472.png 585w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924124.png 1400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u4ef7\u683c\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u65f6\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u7528\u5230\u5e02\u5e10\u7387\u3002\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u91d1\u878d\u80a1\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u80a1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u62e5\u6709\u6709\u5f62\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\u3002Wilmington Trust\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6218\u7565\u4e3b\u7ba1Meghan Shue\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e02\u5e10\u7387\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u65b9\u9762\u6ca1\u90a3\u4e48\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u901a\u5e38\u65e0\u6cd5\u53cd\u6620\u516c\u53f8\u589e\u957f\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u7684\u8fdc\u671f\u5e02\u8d26\u7387\u4e3a4.15\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e10\u5e74\u5747\u503c3.26\u548c20\u5e74\u5747\u503c2.76\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u7684\u5e02\u5e10\u7387\u4e3a22.48\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u5e02\u5e10\u7387\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5bb6\u5f97\u5b9d(Home Depot)\u548c\u5efa\u7b51\u4ea7\u54c1\u516c\u53f8Masco\u5728\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4e2d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6700\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u800cParamount Global\u548cInvesco\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u6700\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u80a1\u7968\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"826\" src=\"https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924126-1024x826.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924126-1024x826.png 1024w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924126-300x242.png 300w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924126-768x619.png 768w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924126-1170x944.png 1170w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924126-585x472.png 585w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924126.png 1400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6301\u6709\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bd4\u8d85\u7ea7\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u56fd\u503a\u98ce\u9669\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u671f\u671b\u524d\u8005\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u957f\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7528\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u4e0b\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u6216\u9884\u671f\u5229\u6da6\u9664\u4ee5\u5176\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u5c06\u5386\u53f2\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u4e3a0.7\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u7ea6\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u8d8a\u8d35\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ruffer\u7684Smith\u5efa\u8bae\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0e10\u5e74\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u4fdd\u503c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u5229\u5dee\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u901a\u80c0\u800c\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u6839\u636e\u9053\u743c\u65af\u5e02\u573a(Dow Jones Market)\u8ffd\u6eaf\u52302003\u5e74\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u8be5\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u503a\u5238\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u56de\u62a5\u4e5f\u5904\u4e8e\u6709\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u672c\u76ca\u6210\u957f\u6bd4(Price\/earnings growth ratio)<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"826\" src=\"https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924123-1024x826.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924123-1024x826.png 1024w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924123-300x242.png 300w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924123-768x619.png 768w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924123-1170x944.png 1170w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924123-585x472.png 585w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924123.png 1400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u76ca\u6210\u957f\u6bd4(\u7b80\u79f0PEG)\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u76c8\u5229\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7528\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u8fc7\u53bb12\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u9664\u4ee5\u5176\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\u672a\u6765\u5e74\u5ea6\u76c8\u5229\u589e\u957f\u3002PEG\u4e3a1\u8868\u793a\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u5176\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u7b26\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u76ee\u524d\u7684PEG\u4e3a1.48\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e1.49\u768410\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e1.35\u768420\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u7684PEG\u6bd4\u7387\u4e3a0.78\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u8f83\u4e3a\u4f4e\u5ec9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387(CAPE ratio)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u7531\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3bRobert Shiller\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7528\u80a1\u7968\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u9664\u4ee5\u4e4b\u524d10\u5e74\u7ecf\u901a\u80c0\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"826\" src=\"https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924122-1024x826.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10534\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924122-1024x826.png 1024w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924122-300x242.png 300w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924122-768x619.png 768w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924122-1170x944.png 1170w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924122-585x472.png 585w, https:\/\/newswz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/im-924122.png 1400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fee\u6b63\u6781\u7aef\u987a\u5883\u548c\u9006\u5883\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u62b9\u5e73\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u706d\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5f02\u5e38\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u4f7f\u80a1\u7968\u4f30\u503c\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u8870\u9000\u540e\u7684\u590d\u82cf\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u4f7f\u80a1\u7968\u4f30\u503c\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u4e3a33.4\u500d\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e1881\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u8d85\u8fc796% \u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e20\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u548c2021\u5e74\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u901a\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c\u3001\u91c7\u77ff\u4e1a\u548c\u6cb9\u6c14\u884c\u4e1a\u7b49\u5468\u671f\u6027\u654f\u611f\u516c\u53f8\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u524d\u666f\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4f9b\u5e94\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1aILLUSTRATION: ALE&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10529,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-23","category-24"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10527"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10527\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10536,"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10527\/revisions\/10536"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newswz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}