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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u662f\uff1a\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u964d\u606f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8ba1\u5212\u572811\u6708\u548c12\u6708\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u964d\u606f\u76f8\u540c\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002\u66fe\u4e8e2008\u5e74\u81f32023\u5e74\u62c5\u4efb\u5723\u8def\u6613\u65af\u8054\u50a8\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f\u7684\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u5e03\u62c9\u5fb7(James Bullard)\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u201c\u5c06\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u79cd\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u975e\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u5730\u964d\u81f3\u65e2\u4e0d\u523a\u6fc0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6291\u5236\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9274\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u5927\u9009\u524d\u89e3\u91ca\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4ece\u964d\u606f0.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u5f00\u59cb\u662f\u963b\u529b\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u201c\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u201d2011\u5e74\u81f32023\u5e74\u62c5\u4efb\u582a\u8428\u65af\u57ce\u8054\u50a8\u884c\u957f\u7684\u4e54\u6cbb(Esther George)\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u2018\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e48\u5e72\u4e0a\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5982\u679c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u592a\u597d\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a0\u5927\u964d\u606f\u529b\u5ea6\u3002\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ece\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u5f00\u59cb\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4fdd\u9669\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u91cd\u538b\u4e0b\u8fc7\u5ea6\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u773c\u4e0b\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u6b64\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u662f\u5b8c\u6210\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u62c9\u56de2%\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u4ee5\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u6307\u6570\u8861\u91cf\u768412\u4e2a\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u52a1\u90e8\u6ce8\uff1a\u6838\u5fc3\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u901a\u80c0\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7ef4\u6301\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e4b\u9645\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u901a\u80c0\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5df2\u5347\u81f3\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5f00\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u8054\u50a8\u884c\u957f\u53e4\u5c14\u65af\u6bd4(Austan Goolsbee)\u4e0a\u5468\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u201c\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u660e\u663e\u671d\u77402%\u56de\u843d\u4e14\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u201d\u591a\u6570\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u201c\u5e0c\u671b\u91c7\u53d6\u6574\u4e2a\u5229\u7387\u7d27\u7f29\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u6700\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8f83\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u65f6\uff0c\u5236\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(FOMC)\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4ee5\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u6bd4\u59822001\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u548c2007\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u521d\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u8fd8\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u6025\u4e8e\u964d\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u201d\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u970d\u666e\u91d1\u65af\u5927\u5b66(Johns Hopkins University)\u91d1\u878d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u5458Faust\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u4f46\u6211\u7565\u5fae\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4ece50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u6211\u4ecd\u7136\u8ba4\u4e3aFOMC\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faust\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u91cf\u63aa\u8f9e\u8ba9\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u4ee4\u4eba\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u6b64\u7c7b\u4e3e\u63aa\u611f\u5230\u6050\u614c\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u79f0\uff1a\u201c\u964d\u606f\u4e0d\u5fc5\u6210\u4e3a\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faust\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u51e0\u4f4d\u5b98\u5458\u5c06\u9884\u8ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u964d\u606f100\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u5982\u679c\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ee525\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u964d\u606f\u7387\u5f00\u5c40\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c34\u5c2c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u4f1a\u4ee5\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u66fe\u4e8e2009\u5e74\u81f32018\u5e74\u62c5\u4efb\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8054\u50a8\u884c\u957f\u7684\u8fbe\u5fb7\u5229(William Dudley)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u50cf\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u771f\u7684\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u8f6f\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5e94\u8be5\u5e0c\u671b\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e4%\uff0c\u4ee525\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u79f0\uff0c\u6309\u7406\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u52a0\u5feb\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u51fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e54\u6cbb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5979\u5c06\u53d1\u73b0\u96be\u4ee5\u53cd\u5bf9\u76ee\u524d\u4ee5\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u3002\u201c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u8bc1\u660e\u964d\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u2018\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u5feb\u2019\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u5230\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u2018\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6b64\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u2019\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fbe\u5fb7\u5229\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u5e76\u4e0d\u7279\u522b\u4ee4\u4eba\u653e\u5fc3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u81ea\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0a\u5347\u4e860.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u5f53\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6709\u6240\u8d70\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u5f88\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6765\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5efa\u7b51\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\u57288\u6708\u4efd\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u4f4f\u5b85\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u62db\u8058\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u75b2\u8f6f\u6765\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9762\u5411\u4e2d\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u516c\u53f8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u538b\u529b\u52a0\u5927\uff0c7\u6708\u4efd\u4e2a\u4eba\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u964d\u81f32.9%\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd12007\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u524d\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u79d1\u6069(Donald Kohn)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e00\u76f4\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u5f53\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c11\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u501f\u8d37\u6765\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u589e\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u79f0\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u2018\u6211\u6709\u4e24\u6761\u8def\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u2014\u2014\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u621650\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u2019\u4f46\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u5df2\u7ecf\u8f6c\u5411\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u964d\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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