\u6587\u7ae0\u6765\u6e90:\u00a0\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5 \u00a0\u00a0\u2013 \u65b0\u95fb\u53d6\u81ea\u5404\u5927\u65b0\u95fb\u5a92\u4f53\uff0c\u65b0\u95fb\u5185\u5bb9\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u672c\u7f51\u7acb\u573a\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7279\u6717\u666e\u62ff\u4e0b\u5357\u90e8\u56db\u4e2a\u5dde\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6700\u5927\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u4ed3\u4e4b\u4e00\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u83b7\u5f97\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u62ff\u4e0b\u4e1c\u6d77\u5cb8\u56db\u4e2a\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u84dd\u5dde\u3002\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u8fd8\u5c06\u8be6\u89e3\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u622a\u81f3\u7f8e\u4e1c\u65f6\u95f4\u665a\u4e0a8\u70b9\uff0c\u6709\u516b\u4e2a\u5dde\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u6d1e\u6089\u8c01\u5c06\u5728\u6b64\u6b21\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u80dc\u51fa\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e(Donald Trump)\u62ff\u4e0b\u4e86\u4fc4\u514b\u62c9\u8377\u9a6c\u5dde\u3001\u7530\u7eb3\u897f\u5dde\u3001\u5bc6\u897f\u897f\u6bd4\u5dde\u548c\u963f\u62c9\u5df4\u9a6c\u5dde\u3002\u6b64\u524d\u4eba\u4eec\u5df2\u9884\u8ba1\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4f1a\u8d62\u5f97\u8fd9\u51e0\u4e2a\u5dde\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af(Kamala Harris)\u62ff\u4e0b\u4e86\u9a6c\u8428\u8bf8\u585e\u5dde\u3001\u5eb7\u6d85\u72c4\u683c\u5dde\u3001\u9a6c\u91cc\u5170\u5dde\u548c\u7f57\u5fb7\u5c9b\u5dde\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\u4e1c\u6d77\u5cb8\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u84dd\u5dde\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5404\u53bf\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u9646\u7eed\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5dde\uff0c\u7ade\u9009\u56e2\u961f\u4e5f\u5c06\u4ece\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8ff9\u8c61\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u6700\u7ec8\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u63d0\u4f9b\u7ebf\u7d22\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u9a6c\u91cc\u5170\u5dde\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6295\u7968\u603b\u6570\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6765\u8bf4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u5146\u5934\u3002\u8be5\u5dde\u7684\u9ed1\u4eba\u9009\u6c11\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5df4\u5c14\u7684\u6469\u548c\u4e54\u6cbb\u738b\u5b50\u53bf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53bf\u7684\u6295\u7968\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u7ade\u9009\u56e2\u961f\u4e86\u89e3\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5728\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4eba\u53e3\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u5979\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u6210\u7ee9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u636e\u7f8e\u8054\u793e(Associated Press)\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7279\u6717\u666e\u62ff\u4e0b\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\uff0c\u4e00\u5982\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u4eca\u665a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u4ed3\u4e4b\u4e00\u53d6\u5f97\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u5728\u5df2\u7edf\u8ba1\u768483%\u7684\u9009\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u83b7\u5f97\u4e8655%\u7684\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u83b7\u5f97\u4e8644%\u7684\u9009\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u66fe\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ade\u4e89\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u6218\u573a\u5dde\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u5dde\u4e00\u76f4\u575a\u5b9a\u5730\u652f\u6301\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u4e09\u6b21\u603b\u7edf\u7ade\u9009\u4e2d\u90fd\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u4ed6\u3002\u5f53\u5929\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u68d5\u6988\u6ee9\u6295\u4e86\u7968\u3002\u8be5\u5dde\u670930\u5f20\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7f8e\u8054\u793e(Associated Press)\u53d1\u5e03\u5f53\u665a\u9996\u6279\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e(Donald Trump)\u62ff\u4e0b\u80af\u5854\u57fa\u5dde\u548c\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u5dde\uff0c\u5361\u739b\u62c9\u00b7\u54c8\u91cc\u65af(Kamala Harris)\u8d62\u5f97\u4f5b\u8499\u7279\u5dde\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u5747\u5728\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u4f2f\u5c3c\u00b7\u6851\u5fb7\u65af(Bernie Sanders)\u8d62\u5f97\u4f5b\u8499\u7279\u5dde\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u56db\u4e2a\u4efb\u671f\u3002\u6851\u5fb7\u65af\u662f\u65e0\u515a\u6d3e\u72ec\u7acb\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u5374\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u8fdb\u6b65\u6d3e\u9886\u8896\uff0c\u66fe\u57282016\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u00b7\u514b\u6797\u987f(Hillary Clinton)\u6784\u6210\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53e6\u636e\u7f8e\u8054\u793e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u575a\u5b9a\u652f\u6301\u8005\u3001\u4f17\u8bae\u5458\u5409\u59c6\u00b7\u73ed\u514b\u65af(Jim Banks)\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u8be5\u5dde\u7684\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u7ade\u9009\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u63a5\u66ff\u8fc8\u514b\u00b7\u5e03\u52b3\u6069(Mike Braun)\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002\u636e\u7f8e\u8054\u793e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5e03\u52b3\u6069\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u665a\u4e0a\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u5f53\u9009\u8be5\u5dde\u5dde\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u53f3\u503e<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7279\u6717\u666e\u6599\u5c06\u4ee5\u8f83\u5927\u4f18\u52bf\u62ff\u4e0b\u8be5\u5dde\u8fc8\u963f\u5bc6-\u6234\u5fb7\u53bf\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u53f3\u503e\u30022020\u5e74\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u4e54\u00b7\u62dc\u767b(Joe Biden)\u5728\u8be5\u53bf\u83b7\u5f9753.7%\u7684\u9009\u7968\u3002\u56db\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u00b7\u514b\u6797\u987f(Hillary Clinton)\u4ee565.1%\u7684\u5f97\u7968\u7387\u8d62\u5f97\u8be5\u53bf\u9009\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u572892%\u7684\u9009\u533a\u8ba1\u7968\u540e\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8d62\u5f9755.4%\u7684\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u9886\u5148\u54c8\u91cc\u65af11.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u8fc8\u963f\u5bc6-\u6234\u5fb7\u53bf\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u662f\u57281988\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\u5360\u6bd4\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u53bf\u663e\u51fa\u4f18\u52bf<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u8d6b\u5357\u591a\u53bf\u768465\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4eba\u53e3\u4f17\u591a\u30022020\u5e74\uff0c\u8be5\u53bf\u652f\u6301\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9ad8\u51fa30\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u5728\u8001\u5e74\u9009\u6c11\u4e2d\u5f88\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u3002\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u8ba1\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u9009\u60c5\u6bd4\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u8fd8\u8981\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u7ea668%\u7684\u9009\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9886\u514833\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u80dc\u5229\u9884\u793a\u7740\u8fd9\u4f4d\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u7c7b\u4f3c\u53bf\u4e5f\u5c06\u6709\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5728\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\u3001\u4ee5\u5f80\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u52bf\u5934\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e9b\u8d70\u5f31<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5728\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u5dde\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u5e02\u90ca\u7684\u5e03\u6069\u548c\u6c49\u5bc6\u5c14\u987f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53bf\u90fd\u662f\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u9ad8\u3001\u5c45\u6c11\u5bcc\u88d5\u7684\u201c\u8fdc\u90ca\u533a\u201d\u3002\u5728\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e2020\u5e74\u7684\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53bf\u5206\u522b\u4ee5\u7ea618\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u548c7\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u7a33\u64cd\u80dc\u5238\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u521d\u6b65\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u5e03\u6069\u9886\u514811\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u5728\u6c49\u5bc6\u5c14\u987f\u9886\u5148\u7ea61\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b57\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6570\u5b57\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u5730\u533a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e9b\u5f31\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5e74\u8f7b\u9009\u6c11\u6599\u5728\u6b64\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u66f4\u5927\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5468\u4e8c\u4e0b\u5348\uff0c\u6570\u767e\u540d\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5185\u534e\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u62c9\u65af\u7ef4\u52a0\u65af\u5206\u6821(University of Nevada, Las Vegas)\u6392\u8d77\u4e86\u957f\u961f\u3002\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u6447\u6446\u5dde\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u6821\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6392\u961f\u65f6\u95f4\u957f\u8fbe\u6570\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002\u8fd9\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5e74\u8f7b\u9009\u6c11\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u6bd4\u8fc7\u53bb\u66f4\u5927\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5468\u4e8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u793eVoteCast\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c18\u5c81\u81f329\u5c81\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u9009\u6c11\u5360\u9009\u6c11\u603b\u6570\u768416%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e2020\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u65f6\u768413%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6839\u636e\u5854\u592b\u8328\u5927\u5b66(Tufts University)\u516c\u6c11\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u53c2\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement)\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u622a\u81f310\u670828\u65e5\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e5d\u4e2a\u5dde\u768418\u5c81\u81f329\u5c81\u767b\u8bb0\u9009\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e862020\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u65e5\u7684\u540c\u5e74\u9f84\u6bb5\u9009\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5dde\u3001\u5185\u534e\u8fbe\u5dde\u548c\u5317\u5361\u7f57\u6765\u7eb3\u5dde\u3002\u8be5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u622a\u81f310\u670828\u65e5\uff0c\u572819\u4e2a\u5dde\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u767b\u8bb0\u9009\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u4e9b\u5141\u8bb8\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u65e5\u5f53\u5929\u767b\u8bb0\u7684\u5dde\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u5dde\u6ca1\u6709\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5bf9\u4e8e\u5185\u534e\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u62c9\u65af\u7ef4\u52a0\u65af\u5206\u6821\u5546\u79d1\u4e13\u4e1a\u5927\u4e00\u65b0\u751f\u300118\u5c81\u7684Bethzy 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